Skip to main content

The winner of The 2014 World Cup is...


Psst. Do you want to know who's going to win the world Cup?

Would you like a sure fire way of beating the Bookies?

Read on you lucky man...

Every bookmaker currently has Brazil as their favourite to win the World Cup. You can get 3 to 1 if you hurry. Why are they favourites though? What makes them so special?

I've delved into the World Cup statistics to find the factors that really matter. The ones that over the last 19 World Cups have made a difference. They are fascinating and do lead you to a clear winner. Is it Brazil though?

From a statistical point of view the following factors provide the best indicator of a World 
Cup Winner. The Continent where the tournament is played, FIFA Rankings from just before the tournament and the average age of the team.

Continent

By far, this has been the biggest indicator. you can pretty much guarantee that the winner will come from South America.

15 out of the 19 World Cups have been won by a team from the continent that the tournament was played in. That's nearly 79% 

But that's not all.

All six tournaments that have been played in South America have been won by a South 
American team. That's 100%

Also, of the 4 World Cups won outside of the continent, Brazil took 3.

FIFA Rankings

We only have rankings for the last 5 World Cups but there is a strong correlation here. In 1994, 2002 and 2010 the winners were placed no lower than 2nd in the previous months rankings. That's a 60% hit rate. Overall, its never gone to anyone outside the top 18.

Average Team Age

Much has been made of England's young squad but lets face it, this could mean nothing if Shaw and Barkley don't actually play. The squad age can mislead you as most wont get a game. The real indicator is the age of the final eleven.

In all World Cups, the average age of the winning eleven is 27.6 years. Remember this number.

So, we know its definitely going to be someone from South America, they are going to be highly placed in the rankings and probably peaking rather than falling. Finally their team will be about 27.6 years old.

The highest ranked South American team is, yes you guessed it, BRAZIL. Oh and their team's average age? 27.7 years!


Brazil are also the only team in the top twenty of the Rankings to have moved up in the last month. They are improving while others have stood still.

Add to that only 4 teams have competed for 34 out of the 38 final spots and one are Brazil and out of 12 finalists in 6 South American Finals 8 where from South America it all starts to look nailed on.

So how does 3 to 1 look now?

There is one glimmer of hope though. Brazil got to the final of the only previous World Cup played in Brazil... and lost!










Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Coaching For The Brave

Over the years football has become more and more commercial. At its highest levels the game is now so professional and scientific it bears little resemblance to that played just a generation ago. This has brought great benefits for players, supporters and TV audiences around the world. A whole industry has erupted to support the game, spawning Directors of Football, Sports Psychologists, Performance Analysts and even Sleep Advisers. Clubs have poured millions into Elite Academies for those identified as having a chance of reaching the top and reaping the rewards. Young Starlets that graduate from these Centres of Excellence are paid thousands of pounds per week despite never having done anything of merit in the game. Coaches are trained and can't wait to get into the talent factories as a "first step on the rung" to a dream full time job with a club. Kids as young as nine and ten have a Golden ticket dangled in front of them and doting, eager parents hapi...

Futsal and Youth Development

Futsal and Youth Football I've hesitated in writing this for a few months now but after spending sometime mulling the subject over, I thought I'd bite the bullet and suffer the flak that will inevitably find itself my way. Twitter is my University of choice. It's where I find ideas and swap opinions with like minded fellow Football Coaches. It's amazing, I am constantly surprised at the level of resources out there and more importantly the generosity of many of the people I come across. It's also chock full of people determined to see every exchange as a battle that must be won. This is why I've hesitated. For months now I've been engaged in exchanges about Futsal and in particular why it's a great development tool. Throughout these discussions, I've asked one simple question: Why? Now some have taken this innocuous enquiry at face value and tried to explain the reasons why they feel it works so well, some have just trotted well us...

Now THAT's a Rondo!

I've seen a quote that says "The whole of the game is present in Rondos" I'm not sure about this but since discovering them I have come to see them as an important tool for youth development. However, when I talk to other coaches I sometimes get the idea that they are misunderstood.  Opinions tend to vary from " Ah, the secret weapon of Barcelona " to " Piggy in the middle? " I certainly found that lot's of coaches I know use what they call a Rondo as some kind of warm up before sessions or games start and my own 9 year olds saw it as just a bit of fun when I introduced them to it. The problem is, the Rondo is so much more and can be used in many different ways. After asking my players what they thought about Rondos I decided I needed to reintroduce them and highlight their effectiveness in a new way. Below is a description of how I did this in a recent session. We've probably all seen this set up and this 4v2 exercise is how...