Psst. Do you want to know who's going to win the world Cup?
Would you like a sure fire way of beating the Bookies?
Read on you lucky man...
Every bookmaker currently has Brazil as their favourite to win the World Cup. You can get 3 to 1 if you hurry. Why are they favourites though? What makes them so special?
I've delved into the World Cup statistics to find the factors that really matter. The ones that over the last 19 World Cups have made a difference. They are fascinating and do lead you to a clear winner. Is it Brazil though?
From a statistical point of view the following factors provide the best indicator of a World
Cup Winner. The Continent where the tournament is played, FIFA Rankings from just before the tournament and the average age of the team.
Continent
By far, this has been the biggest indicator. you can pretty much guarantee that the winner will come from South America.
15 out of the 19 World Cups have been won by a team from the continent that the tournament was played in. That's nearly 79%
But that's not all.
All six tournaments that have been played in South America have been won by a South
American team. That's 100%
Also, of the 4 World Cups won outside of the continent, Brazil took 3.
FIFA Rankings
We only have rankings for the last 5 World Cups but there is a strong correlation here. In 1994, 2002 and 2010 the winners were placed no lower than 2nd in the previous months rankings. That's a 60% hit rate. Overall, its never gone to anyone outside the top 18.
Average Team Age
Much has been made of England's young squad but lets face it, this could mean nothing if Shaw and Barkley don't actually play. The squad age can mislead you as most wont get a game. The real indicator is the age of the final eleven.
In all World Cups, the average age of the winning eleven is 27.6 years. Remember this number.
So, we know its definitely going to be someone from South America, they are going to be highly placed in the rankings and probably peaking rather than falling. Finally their team will be about 27.6 years old.
The highest ranked South American team is, yes you guessed it, BRAZIL. Oh and their team's average age? 27.7 years!
Brazil are also the only team in the top twenty of the Rankings to have moved up in the last month. They are improving while others have stood still.
Add to that only 4 teams have competed for 34 out of the 38 final spots and one are Brazil and out of 12 finalists in 6 South American Finals 8 where from South America it all starts to look nailed on.
So how does 3 to 1 look now?
There is one glimmer of hope though. Brazil got to the final of the only previous World Cup played in Brazil... and lost!
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